This Theory Predicts The End of Crypto in 2023

laatste update: 02-2023


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SOURCES:
I’ve linked my sources in the blog that goes along with this video. Most links are in the text. But, I added some extra literature and data sources to the end of the blog:

Timestamps:
0:00 – introduction
1:45 – speculation
6:10 – sponsor
7:19 – debt
11:54 – fundamental value

Attribution:
TV Image by macrovector on Freepik

Made possible by research help from Oskar Matthey
Animations made by the awesome @IntoEurope
Neon sign from:
Narrated and produced by Dr. Joeri Schasfoort (VU Amsterdam)
Studio designed by Alex Moore Via www.dmsquaredagency.com

30 gedachten over “This Theory Predicts The End of Crypto in 2023”

  1. It will just come back in 2024-2025 after the next bitcoin halfing. Sure a lot of alts will die, but crypto probably won't. Of coruse I could be wrong and this could be the end but crypto has had worse crashes in the past.

  2. Is store of value considered a fundamental value?
    Many countries (specially third-world) undergo hyperinflation (Venezuela) or banks limit withdrawals (Lebanon) or go through a war (Ukraine & Russia), severe political turmoils (Pakistan).
    Does crypto’s core idea of decentralisation provide any value in such circumstances?

  3. If you're responsible you will use your real-estate as a forced savings account and not as the biggest credit card you have.

  4. I think that the difference between cryptos and other assets is that cryptos have no bottom value. There cannot be a final consumer of them, a person who obtains some utility from it.

  5. You could pretty much tell the same story about housing in developed nations, especially ones with small populations like Ireland, Canada, and New Zealand.

    Canada has a real housing shortage and relatively high population growth through immigration, so rents and the fundamental value of housing has been rising, but we've also seen an explosion in housing prices because of changes to the regulations around mortgage lending (30 year amortization instead of 20, 5% down payment instead of 20%, variable rate mortgages, etc.). At this point speculative demand through debt is a major component of the real estate market and a collapse is a real risk for our economy. The prevalence of variable rate mortgages that will rise as central banks raise rates to combat inflation increases our risk of an asset crash and debt-deflation recession.

    It's one of those things I wish I just didn't understand, because the risk is already real and our central bank and government have a very fine line to walk trying to deflate the situation without affecting other sectors of our economy.

  6. Crypto guys accuse bankers of using arcane jargons but they do exactly the same, only with computer science jargons. Though the words alone make sense, if you parse their whole sentences you just get a heap of 💩

  7. In my opinion, the fundamental value of most crypto is practically zero, since they aren't backed by anything of value (like gold), don't have the backing of a government (so you need to pay taxes in that coin) or central bank and isn't even suited for payment traffic, due to the slowness of the network and the energy consumption involved. This is even before the point is considered that there is a reason most currencies got off the gold-standard (which as crypto is deflationary because of scarcity), since this won't allow for expansion of the money supply when the economy grows (bigger economy, so more need for currency to facilitate trade) and monetary stimulus, which was used to stave off a economic crisis (which wasn't possible in the 1930's during the great depression and yes I think high inflation is preferable to a 10-year economic crisis).

  8. aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat what price level does Michael Saylor get a margin call? ooooooooooooooooooohh nnnnnnnooooooooooooooooooooooooo….crash! (no central bank bailout)

  9. I never understood Crypto exchanges. Doesn’t that defeat the whole point?

  10. The fundamental value of crypto is and always has been $0…actually negative with the energy it consumes. Even tulipmania back in the day had some value…whereas crypto literally provides no value of any type to the world. It will go to 0

  11. Our time had reached its zenith, and it is now over. Everything not just FTX, Stock including 401Ks, are suffering from the recession and crashes. My $750K retirement equity portfolio is losing money. Because of inflation, I keep losing. Similar to how Rome fell under its despotic emperors, this world will also. I apologize if you are considering retirement but are concerned that your pension won't cover the rising expense of living. There are terrible foreign policies worldwide, as well as disastrous regulatory, fiscal, and energy policies.

  12. I watched Crypto start from a humble idea reach its natural end as a ponzi scam. If this bubble somehow crashes the economy with it, we will have learned nothing from Lehman Brothers. In fact, we will have come full circle, as Satoshi Nakamoto seeded the first Bitcoin, rooted in his frustrations with the perceived "regulation" that brought the last crash.

    We are living in an Onion headline.

  13. "If I decide to increase the price of 'oranges'" then promptly brandishes clementines – this guy knows his strut………..

  14. So crypto has zero/little value as it's not used much to buy groceries or do non-financial business? Is art or gold used daily to buy groceries or non-financial business too? What about air, rain, rocks, sand, grass, weeds, pests, dung, heat, cold, sunlight or gravity? How about space, time, souls, ghosts, gods, maths, music, magic & logic?

  15. BSV has one of the best fundamental values and did not inflate much during the crypto bubble

  16. I guess I would not be called a genius by concluding that constructing a cryptovaluta that cannot be used for speculative purposes or for which strong negative feedbacks are put in place to prevent this – or at least to prevent debt-fueled speculation – would be the way forward. Also, strengthening the fundamental value of that cryptovaluta (e.g. by implementing it’s use as a valuta for buying and selling energy, transportation and the like), should make it more resistant towards speculation-fueled cycling.

  17. Well it is certainly not money because when people translate its value it is always measured in dollars. If it was anything other than speculation it would be measured in bitcoin.

  18. You asked the wrong questions…. First seperate Bitcoin from Crypto, second understand that nothing besides Bitcoin has value, third ask bitcoiners where else they would store their purchasing power, fourth understand why bitcoiners are bitcoiners….. But good video in general. I learned this lesson from Howard Marks book „Mastering the market cycle“!

  19. I take Warren Buffet's view of crypto. No, I'm more pessimistic. Rat poison has uses.

    The positive feedback loop nature, presented, is something every electrical engineer knows down in his bones. And its not a positive view.

  20. Just found your channel and I really enjoyed the content. Me thinks I'll subscribe!

  21. Michael Saylor, "..when Bitcoin becomes the World's Reserve Currency…" is the most hilarious phrase I've heard all week.

    OK, so he's probably done a bit better than me over the years, but I also haven't lost a billion or two in crypto.

  22. What happens if I buy a Bitcoin for 20k and the value drops? Who gets the 20k I paid in? Where did my money go?

  23. Great video, but your math is way off. 6/(6 + 37) = 13.95% not 30%

  24. You're not really wrong if you predict a collapse in the long run and you have a collapse in the medium run 😎

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