Expert predictions for individual stocks next month are about as good as tossing a coin

laatste update: 12-2023

In this video, I put to the test – using publicly available data from monthly predictions about the Dutch stock market – the assumption that experts can reasonably tell which stocks are going to perform well in the next month and which stocks will not. Using over 300 predictions resulting from survey responses from dozens of experts in each of the past 33 months, I show that there is no evidence that such expert predictions outperform predictions following from simply tossing a coin. For any ideas or suggestions for future videos, just leave a comment below this video or get in touch via:

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