21-20 Feb 2014 – AEX-index Forecasting based on Matching-Date in the Past

laatste update: 08-2022


21 Feb 2014, This uses data untill today . Match-Date is shown at top-left .
I look in the past for a matching date . On the matching date , data ( stock price ,or SD=standard deviation etc) before matching date looks similar to data before forecasting-day ( next market day) .
The matching dates , show probable scenario for today & future , as past of matching date is similar to past of today .
Afte collecting automatic matches , I use Try-mode for fine-tuning of the match date by visually-comparing past & last days graph of price, RSI, SD & checking compliance in last few days ( I can hide a few last-dates data for checking ) . Forecasting is not precise , but can guide me about coming 1-3 days , in combination with other
info from other analysts .

3 gedachten over “21-20 Feb 2014 – AEX-index Forecasting based on Matching-Date in the Past”

  1. 21 Feb 2014 , AEX Index , is  addition to previous scenarios . 
    I added 1 more scenario, which apears often in weekbars , 
    AEXIND, Scenario match-date 060411 🙁 Incidental upload)
    Xt 751:210214,O=399.96,H=400.90,L=398.34,C=399.44(+0.68)
    Actual:200214,O=397.04,H=398.76,L=395.78,C=398.76(-2.78)

    AEXIND, Scenario match-date 201109 :
    Xm1109:210214,O=399.88,H=401.29,L=394.85,C=395.48(-3.28)
    Actual:200214,O=397.04,H=398.76,L=395.78,C=398.76(-2.78)

    AEXIND, Scenario match-date 201206 :
    Xt1871:210214,O=401.31,H=402.24,L=400.48,C=400.92(+2.16)
    Actual:200214,O=397.04,H=398.76,L=395.78,C=398.76(-2.78)

  2. 04 Mar 2014, AEX-Index, The 2011 date scenario. is selected by most methods, 
    but 2009 scenario has revived again ( both are in video, 21, 20 feb )
     again because of sharp fall yesterday .The extrapolated values below are
     a bit lower than expected  because of large gap-up today .

    AEXIND, Scenario match-date 011209 ( just up up up till friday)
    Xt1109:040314,O=391.17,H=397.73,L=391.16,C=397.73(+9.54)
    Actual:030314,O=392.14,H=394.00,L=386.66,C=388.19(-10.35)

    AEXIND, Scenario match-date 271109 ( pull-down tomarrow in this case)
    Xt1111:040314,O=382.01,H=393.07,L=382.01,C=390.99(+2.80)
    Actual:030314,O=392.14,H=394.00,L=386.66,C=388.19(-10.35)

    AEXIND, Scenario match-date 130411 :
    Xt 753:040314,O=388.98,H=392.75,L=388.43,C=390.18(+1.99)
    Actual:030314,O=392.14,H=394.00,L=386.66,C=388.19(-10.35)

  3. 07 Mar 2014, AEX Index ( new scenario appeared , not in video)
    AEXIND, Scenario match-date 150411 : ( using week-bars ),
                   shows fall to 392 on Monday, is in video , then up up )
    Xt 754:070314,O=400.51,H=401.09,L=398.03,C=399.58(-0.48)
    Actual:060314,O=399.56,H=400.83,L=398.58,C=400.06(+1.44)

    AEXIND, Scenario match-date 290905 : ( new scenarion appeared ,
                   (shows up up up to 407 from Monday, not in video) , 
    Xm2200:070314,O=400.39,H=400.49,L=397.81,C=398.48(-1.58)
    Actual:060314,O=399.56,H=400.83,L=398.58,C=400.06(+1.44)

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